The June 17 Iran Deal Will Not Hold
On June 17 the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran signed a 14 point memorandum of understanding to end the war that began on February 28. The White House is presenting it as a diplomatic achievement. I hope I am wrong but I do not believe this deal will hold. Here is why.
What I Wrote in April
In April I published Kincaid's Plan for a Free Iran. In that post I made two observations. First that Trump's claim that regime change had already occurred was not accurate. Second that Trump did not appear to have a real plan. That he was making decisions day by day and continually shifting objectives.
Both observations have held up.
In March the President told reporters that America had achieved regime change in Iran. Because the leaders were all different. Fact checkers and foreign policy experts across the spectrum said the same thing I said. Killing leaders is not regime change. The regime's institutions and its ideology. It’s levers of power remained intact. In June at the G7 summit. The President reversed himself entirely and claimed he never cared about regime change at all.
Regime change was a stated objective when the war began. Then it was declared accomplished. Then it never mattered. That is not a strategy. That is exactly the day by day improvisation I described in April.
The Same Regime Only Harsher
The government that signed this memorandum is not a new Iran. It is the old Iran under new management. And the new management is worse.
Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father as Supreme Leader. The officials who filled the vacancies left by the war. The new national security leadership. The new Revolutionary Guard commanders. Are men with long records of domestic repression. This is the regime that shot protesters in the streets this past winter and has been carrying out executions connected to those protests. The Revolutionary Guard still controls the guns and the money. The Basij still patrols the streets.
A regime like this does not honor agreements. It survives them. The Islamic Republic has spent 47 years treating negotiations as breathing room. Time to rebuild, rearm and wait out the pressure. The ceasefire has already been tested by renewed fighting involving Iran's proxies in the region. And having just watched its leadership decapitated from the air. The regime's incentive to secretly pursue a nuclear deterrent has never been stronger. That is not speculation. That is how this regime has behaved for five decades.
The Frozen Assets Are Going to the Wrong People
This is the part of the deal that troubles me most.
The memorandum commits the United States to making Iran's frozen and restricted assets fully available to Tehran. More than 100 billion dollars in Iranian assets sit frozen around the world. Reports also describe a possible reconstruction fund reaching as much as 300 billion dollars.
In April I argued that this money belongs to the Iranian people. That it was stolen from them by the regime. That it should be placed under the control of a transitional council and used to fund a free Iran. Instead this deal hands it back to the same criminal enterprise that stole it. Money released to this regime does not feed the Iranian people. It flows to the Revolutionary Guard. To the repression apparatus and to the rebuilding of the war machine that was just destroyed at enormous cost.
We have seen this before. In 2023 six billion dollars in Iranian oil revenue was moved to Qatar as part of a prisoner exchange. Supposedly restricted to humanitarian use. Within months access to those funds had to be restricted again after Iranian escalation. The pattern repeats because the regime does not change.
What I Would Do in Congress
If elected I would oppose the unconditional release of frozen Iranian assets. Any release of funds should be conditioned on verifiable IAEA access to every nuclear site. An end to attacks by Iran and its proxies. And measurable human rights benchmarks starting with an end to the executions of protesters. If the regime violates those conditions the money stops. Permanently.
And I would keep the long range framework I published in April on the table. Nothing in this memorandum changes the fundamental reality. The Iranian people remain hostages of a regime that has forfeited any legitimate right to govern. A piece of paper signed by that regime does not free them.
When this deal breaks down and I believe it will. America should not be caught improvising again. We should have a real plan ready. I have already written one.
Link - Kincaid’s Plan for a Free Iran
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