Campaign Update: Making My Case to the Voters and the Math Behind It

As the race for Washington’s 1st Congressional District heats up, I want to share where things stand and why I believe our campaign represents the best path forward for Democrats who value balance, integrity, and common sense.

As of today, this is shaping up to be a crowded top two primary the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election, regardless of party preference, and candidates must also clear the 1% threshold.

We expect at least five candidates on the ballot. Myself, Kincaid, challenging incumbent Representative Suzan DelBene, along with Hunter Gordon (a self-described socialist), James Etzkorn (running as an independent), and one or more Republican candidates.

The reality of the field

Representative DelBene will almost certainly raise the most money and lead the field in resources. She has major incumbent advantages, and the public FEC candidate profile shows the scale of her fundraising operation. (FEC candidate profile)

That gives her a strong position heading into the primary. But the real question isn’t simply who can raise the most money. It’s:

Who can build a coalition big enough to win in November and represent this district with credibility and common sense?

What the district tells us

WA-01 is widely rated a strongly Democratic leaning district. Cook Political Report rates it Solid D and lists the district’s Cook PVI at D+15. (Cook Political Report)

That makes it extremely difficult for a Republican to win the general election here.

Independents also face long odds in modern House politics. Bernie Sanders was elected as an independent to the U.S. House beginning in 1991, and that kind of win is rare in the modern era. (U.S. House Historian)

As for a far left socialist candidacy. In a multi-candidate primary, energized factions can get attention. But winning district wide in WA-01 requires persuading tens of thousands of mainstream voters across Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Bothell, Woodinville, and beyond. Voters who want practical leadership, not ideological extremes.

Why Kincaid can win

This race leaves a real opening for moderate Democrats and pragmatic voters who believe in doing the hard work of governing and who feel the party too often ignores common sense concerns.

My coalition is straightforward:

Democrats and independents who want practical, results driven leadership
Voters who support fairness and safety in women’s sports and clear rules for sex based privacy
Voters who reject antisemitism and political extremism without apology
Voters who believe October 7 was an atrocity, and who support a foreign policy grounded in security, peace, and human rights
Families focused on public safety, homelessness reform, and affordability

There are plenty of moderate Democrats in WA-01. What’s been missing is a candidate willing to speak plainly, calmly, respectfully, and consistently about where the party has lost touch with normal voters.

Can Kincaid win? Yes.
Not by outspending an incumbent. By out connecting, out working, and building the coalition of Democrats and independents who are ready for a voice of reason in Congress.

I really want this to be clear.

Let me repeat what I said in a different way. In order to be perfectly clear.In the primary. There is zero chance of any candidate raising more money than Suzan DelBene . She will get the most votes and proceed to the general election. That is a given. But the question is who will be able to beat her in the general election.

Any Republican has zero chance of winning. Even if the sky open up. And Jesus Christ gave the Republican candidate his endorsement. The Republican candidate still would not win.

Next let’s talk about the Independent candidate. It’s been over 35 years since an Independent candidate has won a House seat. Bernie Sanders was the last one to do it. So the Independent has zero chance. James Etzkorn sounds like he is running for the job of an accountant. He has zero chance.

Next let’s talk about the socialist Hunter Gordon. He is a Zohran Mamdani wannabe. Hunter Gordon clearly has anti-semitic views. That’s too clean of a word to use. Hunter Gordon hates Jews in my opinion . After New York and Seattle. Socialism seems to be trending. And unfortunately antisemitism is also trending. I don’t think the socialism and antisemitism bull crap will be successful in District 1 . I think and I hope someone like Hunter Gordon could never win in District 1 . But I can’t say there is a zero chance of him winning. God help us all if he does.

Last but not least me, Kincaid. Could I win in the general election against Representative Suzan DelBene . Yes I believe there could be enough moderate Democrats. That I could win. People that don’t think boys should be on girls teams or in girls locker rooms. People that don’t hate Jews. People that don’t believe the October 7 attack was justified. There are many moderate Democrats. But not many moderate Democratic candidates. Yes I could win.

In order to win I will need the votes of moderate Democrats . I will need the votes from Independents who realize their vote would be wasted on an Independent candidate. And some moderate Republican voters. Republicans that realize a Republican candidate has zero chance of winning. That their vote would be wasted on any Republican candidate. Republicans that realize they might not love me. But they love Suzan DelBene less. And that , "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." I need voters that realize that Kincaid is the best chance. And maybe the last chance to defeat Suzan DelBene. If Suzan DelBene is not defeated now. She will most certainly become. One of those politicians that stays in office. Until they are 80 or older.

Comments

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Kincaid for Congress – Washington’s 1st District

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