Campaign Update: Making My Case to the Voters and the Math Behind It

March 5, 2026. Updated July 2026 with new field developments and the voter pamphlet.

As the race for Washington's 1st Congressional District heats up. I want to share where things stand and why I believe this campaign represents the best path forward for Democrats who value balance, integrity and common sense.

This is a crowded top two primary. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party preference.

Seven candidates are on the August 4 ballot. Myself Kincaid challenging incumbent Representative Suzan DelBene, along with Hunter Gordon (a self described socialist), James Etzkorn (running as an independent), Catherine Hildebrand, Bryce Nickel and Mary Silva (the lone Republican).

The Reality of the Field

Representative DelBene will almost certainly raise the most money and lead the field in resources. She has major incumbent advantages and her public FEC candidate profile reflects the scale of her fundraising operation. (FEC candidate profile)

That gives her a strong position heading into the primary. But the real question is not simply who raises the most money. The real question is this.

Who is able to build a coalition large enough to win in November and represent this district with credibility and common sense?

What the District Tells Us

WA-01 is widely rated a strongly Democratic leaning district. Cook Political Report rates the district Solid D with a Cook PVI of D+15. (Cook Political Report)

That makes a Republican general election win here extremely difficult. That is what the numbers on paper say. In the real world any Republican candidate has zero chance of winning in the general election. Independents also face long odds in modern House politics. Bernie Sanders was last elected as an independent to the U.S. House in 1991. That kind of outcome is exceptionally rare in the modern era. (U.S. House Historian)

In a multi candidate primary energized factions generate attention and momentum. But winning district wide in WA-01 requires persuading tens of thousands of mainstream voters across Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Bothell and Woodinville, along with Marysville, Arlington and Monroe in Snohomish County. Voters who want practical leadership not ideological extremes.

What the Voter Pamphlet Shows

Your voter pamphlet should have arrived by now . Read every statement side by side. Then ask yourself three questions.

Which candidate made protecting women's sports and women's spaces a priority? One. Kincaid.

Which candidate talked about crime and public safety? One. Kincaid.

Which candidate has taken a strong public stand against the evil of antisemitism? One. Kincaid.

Seven candidates. One pamphlet. On the issues families in this district live with every day. Six statements go silent.

Why Kincaid Can Win

This race leaves a real opening for moderate Democrats and pragmatic voters who believe in doing the hard work of governing and who feel the party has too often ignored common sense concerns in favor of ideological positioning.

My coalition is straightforward:

Democrats and independents who want practical results driven leadership
Voters who support fairness and safety in women's sports and clear standards for sex based privacy
Voters who reject antisemitism and political extremism without apology
Voters who believe October 7 was an atrocity and who support a foreign policy grounded in security, peace and human rights
Families focused on public safety, homelessness reform and affordability

There are plenty of moderate Democrats in WA-01. What has been missing is a candidate willing to speak plainly, calmly and consistently about where the party has lost touch with ordinary voters. That is what this campaign is.

An Honest Assessment of Every Candidate

Let me be direct about the realistic path for each candidate in this race.

Representative Suzan DelBene

She will almost certainly raise more money than any other candidate in this race and will advance to the general election. There is no point pretending otherwise. The real question is who faces her in November and whether her opponent makes a credible case to the full district.

Mary Silva Republican

In a D+15 district a Republican has no realistic path to winning the general election. And this year Republican voters face a deeper problem.

On July 15 the Herald published its candidate profile of Silva. In emails to the paper Silva defended Christopher Bollyn. A writer whose work claims Israel carried out the September 11 attacks and whom the ADL identifies as an antisemitic conspiracy theorist. Silva told the Herald his writing was "the most well referenced work on 911 you could hope to find." She listed Bollyn as an intellectual influence in her own 2024 Ballotpedia survey. And a video on her YouTube channel features her being interviewed by Brendon O'Connell. A man convicted in 2011 on six counts of anti-Jewish harassment.

After the Herald interview ran. The King County Republican Party pulled back their endorsement. Her own party looked at the record and stepped away.

If you are a Republican voter in WA-01 you have no real candidate in this race. As a moderate Democrat I am the only candidate positioned to earn your vote. I share your concerns on crime, public safety and government accountability. I will represent you even if you have never voted for a Democrat in your life. My door is open.

James Etzkorn Independent

More than 35 years have passed since an independent candidate won a U.S. House seat. Running as an independent in a district this partisan is an admirable choice. But not a viable path to victory. Independents who share this campaign's values and priorities would have a far greater impact supporting a candidate positioned to win.

Hunter Gordon Far Left

Hunter Gordon's platform is built on ideas most voters in this district and most Americans firmly reject. His website calls for making billionaires illegal through extreme taxation. Cutting off aid to Israel. And describes Israel as carrying out a "perpetual genocide of Palestinians." That statement is completely false and dangerous. There is no genocide of Palestinians. Promoting lies like this has driven antisemitism to an all time high. People have been hurt and killed. Simply because they are Jewish. Gordon has been endorsed by AIPAC Tracker. An organization opposing candidates who receive funding from pro-Israel groups. His platform promotes both socialism and what I believe is a form of antisemitism dressed up as foreign policy criticism.

WA-01 is not New York City. WA-01 is not the far left fringe of Seattle. This is a district of engineers, small business owners, working families and practical problem solvers. I do not believe a platform rooted in socialist ideology and hostility toward Israel wins here. But voters should read his platform and draw their own conclusions.

The Only Strong Stand Against Antisemitism

Antisemitism has surfaced on both flanks of this race. On the far left. Gordon's rhetoric about Israel. On the right. Silva's own record of citing an antisemitic conspiracy theorist and platforming a man convicted of anti-Jewish harassment.

I am the only candidate in this race who has taken a strong public stand against antisemitism. Zero tolerance. No exceptions. No excuses. Jewish families in this district deserve a representative who says so plainly and means every word.

The Path to Victory

Kincaid wins by out connecting, out working and building the coalition of Democrats, independents and abandoned Republicans who are ready for a voice of reason in Congress. Not by outspending an incumbent.

To be clear about what winning looks like. Representative DelBene will almost certainly finish first in the primary and advance to the general election. The goal of the primary is to finish second and earn the right to face her one on one in November. The general election is where this race is decided.

In a general election the coalition able to defeat her is real and reachable. This coalition includes:

Moderate Democrats who want a representative who speaks honestly about the issues the party has avoided. Women's sports, antisemitism, public safety and fiscal common sense
Independents who recognize their vote is more powerful behind a candidate positioned to win
Republicans whose party pulled back from their own candidate and who now have no real choice in this race. A practical, common sense Democrat who listens beats an entrenched incumbent with a record of ignoring your concerns

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. If Representative DelBene has failed to represent you. Regardless of your party. This campaign is worth your serious consideration.

If Representative DelBene is not defeated now. She will in all likelihood hold this seat for another decade or more. The window for change is open. This campaign is the most credible vehicle to take advantage of the moment.

I am asking for your vote, your support and your trust. I will not waste them.

Paid for by Kincaid For Congress

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Kincaid for Congress 2028 – Washington’s 1st District

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