Campaign Update: Making My Case to the Voters and the Math Behind It

Campaign Update: Making My Case to the Voters and the Math Behind It

March 5, 2026

As the race for Washington's 1st Congressional District heats up, I want to share where things stand and why I believe this campaign represents the best path forward for Democrats who value balance, integrity, and common sense.

As of today, this is shaping up to be a crowded top two primary. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election regardless of party preference, and all candidates must clear the 1% threshold to qualify.

We expect at least five candidates on the ballot. Myself Kincaid challenging incumbent Representative Suzan DelBene, along with Hunter Gordon (a self described socialist), James Etzkorn (running as an independent), and one or more Republican candidates.

The Reality of the Field

Representative DelBene will almost certainly raise the most money and lead the field in resources. She has major incumbent advantages, and her public FEC candidate profile reflects the scale of her fundraising operation. (FEC candidate profile)

That gives her a strong position heading into the primary. But the real question is not simply who can raise the most money. It is:

Who can build a coalition large enough to win in November and represent this district with credibility and common sense?

What the District Tells Us

WA-01 is widely rated a strongly Democratic leaning district. Cook Political Report rates it Solid D with a Cook PVI of D+15. (Cook Political Report)

That makes it extremely difficult for a Republican to win the general election here. Independents also face long odds in modern House politics. Bernie Sanders was last elected as an independent to the U.S. House in 1991 . That kind of outcome is exceptionally rare in the modern era. (U.S. House Historian)

In a multi candidate primary, energized factions can generate attention and momentum. But winning district wide in WA-01 requires persuading tens of thousands of mainstream voters across Bellevue, Kirkland, Redmond, Bothell, Woodinville, and the broader district. Voters who want practical leadership, not ideological extremes.

Why Kincaid Can Win

This race leaves a real opening for moderate Democrats and pragmatic voters who believe in doing the hard work of governing and who feel the party has too often ignored common sense concerns in favor of ideological positioning.

My coalition is straightforward:

Democrats and independents who want practical, results-driven leadership
Voters who support fairness and safety in women's sports and clear standards for sex based privacy
Voters who reject antisemitism and political extremism without apology
Voters who believe October 7 was an atrocity, and who support a foreign policy grounded in security, peace, and human rights
Families focused on public safety, homelessness reform, and affordability

There are plenty of moderate Democrats in WA-01. What has been missing is a candidate willing to speak plainly, calmly, and consistently about where the party has lost touch with ordinary voters. That is what this campaign is.

An Honest Assessment of Every Candidate

Let me be direct about the realistic path for each candidate in this race.

Representative Suzan DelBene

She will almost certainly raise more money than any other candidate in this race and will advance to the general election. That is the most likely outcome and there is no point pretending otherwise. The real question is who faces her in November and whether that candidate can make a credible case to the full district.

Republican Candidates

In a D+15 district, a Republican candidate has no realistic path to winning the general election. A vote for a Republican in WA-01 is, practically speaking, a vote that does not count toward changing the outcome. Moderate Republicans who want to see real change in this seat should think carefully about where their vote has the most impact.

James Etzkorn Independent

It has been more than 35 years since an independent candidate won a U.S. House seat. Running as an independent in a district this partisan is an admirable choice, but it is not a viable path to victory. Independents who share this campaign's values and priorities would have a far greater impact supporting a candidate who can actually win.

Hunter Gordon Far Left

Hunter Gordon's platform is built on ideas that most voters in this district and most Americans firmly reject. His website calls for making billionaires illegal through extreme taxation, cutting off aid to Israel, and describes Israel as carrying out a "perpetual genocide of Palestinians." That statement is completely false and dangerous . There is no genocide of Palestinians. Promoting lies like this has caused antisemitism to be at an all time high. It has lead to many people being hurt or killed. Simply because they are Jewish. Gordon has been endorsed by Track AIPAC, an organization that opposes pro-Israel political giving. His platform promotes both socialism and what I believe is a form of antisemitism dressed up as foreign policy criticism.

WA-01 is not New York City. It is not the far left fringe of Seattle. It is a district of engineers, small business owners, working families, and practical problem solvers. I do not believe that a platform rooted in socialist ideology and hostility toward Israel can win here. But voters should read his platform and draw their own conclusions.

The Path to Victory

Can Kincaid win? Yes. Not by outspending an incumbent. By out connecting, out working, and building the coalition of Democrats and independents who are ready for a voice of reason in Congress.

To be clear about what winning looks like. Representative DelBene will almost certainly finish first in the primary and advance to the general election. The goal of the primary is to finish second to earn the right to face her one on one in November. That is where this race is decided.

In a general election, the coalition that can defeat her is real and reachable. It includes:

Moderate Democrats who want a representative who speaks honestly about the issues the party has avoided women's sports, antisemitism, public safety, and fiscal common sense
Independents who recognize that their vote is more powerful behind a candidate who can win than behind one who cannot
Moderate Republicans who have no realistic path to victory with their own candidate in this district and who may find that a practical, common sense Democrat is preferable to an entrenched incumbent with a record of ignoring their concerns

The enemy of my enemy is my friend. If Representative DelBene has failed to represent you regardless of your party this campaign is worth your serious consideration.

If Representative DelBene is not defeated now, she will in all likelihood hold this seat for another decade or more. The window for change is open. This campaign is the most credible vehicle to take advantage of it.

I am asking for your vote, your support, and your trust. I will not waste it.

Comments

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Kincaid for Congress – Washington’s 1st District

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